GENDER & POLITICS

2025

1. 

   The Electoral Effects of State-Sponsored Homophobia

   Violeta Ines Haas, Konstantin Bogatyrev, Tarik Abou-Chadi, Heike Klüver, and Lukas Stoetzer

   Feb 2025

   abstract url Bib

   Do strategies of state-sponsored homophobia translate into electoral gains? While a growing body of literature documents the increasing politicization of LGBTQ- and gender-related issues by illiberal elites, little is known about the electoral effects of these strategies. We address this important question by studying whether anti-LGBTQ mobilization pays off electorally for the initiating party. Empirically, we study the adoption of anti-LGBTQ resolutions in many Polish municipalities prior to the 2019 parliamentary election. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we find that these resolutions significantly depressed turnout in affected municipalities, with opposition parties showing less mobilization capacity. By contrast, turnout for the incumbent Law and Justice Party increased substantially. Overall, this study’s findings are relevant for understanding the electoral consequences of both elite-led mobilization against stigmatized and discriminated groups, and policies of subnational democratic backsliding.

   @misc{haas_electoral_2025,
     title = {The {Electoral} {Effects} of {State}-{Sponsored} {Homophobia}},
     copyright = {https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode},
     url = {https://osf.io/wvnbr_v2},
     doi = {10.31219/osf.io/wvnbr_v2},
     urldate = {2025-06-06},
     publisher = {Open Science Framework},
     author = {Haas, Violeta Ines and Bogatyrev, Konstantin and Abou-Chadi, Tarik and Klüver, Heike and Stoetzer, Lukas},
     month = feb,
     year = {2025},
     project_genderpolitics = {true}
   }

2. 

   The Youth Gender Gap in Support for the Far Right

   Ðorđe Milosav, Zachary Dickson, Sara B. Hobolt, Heike Klüver, Theresa Kuhn, and Toni Rodon

   Journal of European Public Policy, Mar 2025

   abstract url Bib

   The 2024 European Parliament election showcased a surprising new trend. While progressive parties have traditionally done well among younger voters, it was far-right parties that enjoyed unprecedented electoral support among young voters in the 2024 EP elections. Analyzing data from the European Election Studies (EES) 2024, covering 27 countries and almost 25,000 voters, this paper shows that there is a sizable gender gap in voting for the far right. The electoral success of far-right parties among young voters is primarily driven by the support of young men, peaking at over 21% of all young men in 2024 compared to only about 14% among women of the same age cohort. Descriptive analyses from the EES shows that this gap can partially be explained by attitudinal differences, with young women holding more socially progressive views than young men. Age-Period-Cohort models based on EES data covering eight elections from 1989 to 2024 further reveal that this gender gap is greatest for Millennials and Generation Z. Since political attitudes and voting behaviour during the formative years may have a long-lasting effect on voting patterns and attitudes later in life, our findings have important implications for the future of European democracies.

   @article{milosav_youth_2025,
     title = {The {Youth} {Gender} {Gap} in {Support} for the {Far} {Right}},
     issn = {1350-1763, 1466-4429},
     url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13501763.2025.2481181},
     doi = {10.1080/13501763.2025.2481181},
     language = {en},
     urldate = {2025-05-15},
     journal = {Journal of European Public Policy},
     author = {Milosav, Ðorđe and Dickson, Zachary and Hobolt, Sara B. and Klüver, Heike and Kuhn, Theresa and Rodon, Toni},
     month = mar,
     year = {2025},
     pages = {1--25},
     project_risefarright = {true},
     project_genderpolitics = {true},
     project_socialmedia = {true}
   }

2024

1. 

   Helping the Cause? The Effect of Female Top Candidate Nominations on Voters

   Frederik Thieme, Heike Klüver, and Jae-Jae Spoon

   Jul 2024

   abstract url Bib

   What effect does nominating a female top candidate have on voters? Whilenumerous studies investigate the effect of ordinary candidates, it is unclear how thenomination of female leading candidates affects women. We provide the first studythat addresses this question by exploiting the nomination of Annalena Baerbock by theGerman Green Party as the party’s top candidate in the 2021 election. This nominationprovides a unique opportunity to identify the causal effect of a female leading candidateas it was entirely unclear whether Annalena Baerbock or the Greens’ male co-leader,Robert Habeck, would be nominated until the day of the announcement. By leveraginga survey among nearly 70,000 citizens in the field during the nomination, we shed lighton how her nomination affected voters. The results show a positive impact of Baerbock’snomination for the Greens, but among women as well as men. We complement thisanalysis with a survey experiment among 9,000 respondents in Germany to investigatethe underlying causal mechanisms. We find that there is a positive effect of nominatinga female top candidate instead of a man and that these effects are driven by a desire topromote gender equality and by a shared social identity of respondents. Our results haveimportant implications for the debate on gender and politics.

   @misc{thieme_helping_2024,
     title = {Helping the {Cause}? {The} {Effect} of {Female} {Top} {Candidate} {Nominations} on {Voters}},
     shorttitle = {Helping the {Cause}?},
     url = {https://osf.io/v2bxp},
     doi = {10.31219/osf.io/v2bxp},
     urldate = {2025-05-09},
     publisher = {Open Science Framework},
     author = {Thieme, Frederik and Klüver, Heike and Spoon, Jae-Jae},
     month = jul,
     year = {2024},
     project_genderpolitics = {true}
   }