THE RISE OF THE FAR RIGHT

summary

The project examines how socio-economic inequality, migration, and party communication contribute to the rise of far-right parties in Europe. Its overarching hypothesis is that far-right parties have strategically exploited (perceived) inequalities and recent migration trends to mobilize voters. The research is structured around four main pillars. First, it investigates how inequality shapes voter support for far-right parties. Second, it explores the impact of migration inflows on electoral behavior. Third, it analyzes the issues emphasized in party communication, with a particular focus on the messaging strategies of far-right parties. Finally, the project examines how mainstream parties can effectively respond to the far right—both during election campaigns and in their social media engagement.

Research in this area has been (partly) funded by:

related publications

2025

The Youth Gender Gap in Support for the Far Right

Ðorđe Milosav, Zachary Dickson, Sara B. Hobolt, Heike Klüver, Theresa Kuhn, and Toni Rodon

Journal of European Public Policy, Mar 2025

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The 2024 European Parliament election showcased a surprising new trend. While progressive parties have traditionally done well among younger voters, it was far-right parties that enjoyed unprecedented electoral support among young voters in the 2024 EP elections. Analyzing data from the European Election Studies (EES) 2024, covering 27 countries and almost 25,000 voters, this paper shows that there is a sizable gender gap in voting for the far right. The electoral success of far-right parties among young voters is primarily driven by the support of young men, peaking at over 21% of all young men in 2024 compared to only about 14% among women of the same age cohort. Descriptive analyses from the EES shows that this gap can partially be explained by attitudinal differences, with young women holding more socially progressive views than young men. Age-Period-Cohort models based on EES data covering eight elections from 1989 to 2024 further reveal that this gender gap is greatest for Millennials and Generation Z. Since political attitudes and voting behaviour during the formative years may have a long-lasting effect on voting patterns and attitudes later in life, our findings have important implications for the future of European democracies.
@article{milosav_youth_2025, title = {The {Youth} {Gender} {Gap} in {Support} for the {Far} {Right}}, issn = {1350-1763, 1466-4429}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13501763.2025.2481181}, doi = {10.1080/13501763.2025.2481181}, language = {en}, urldate = {2025-05-15}, journal = {Journal of European Public Policy}, author = {Milosav, Ðorđe and Dickson, Zachary and Hobolt, Sara B. and Klüver, Heike and Kuhn, Theresa and Rodon, Toni}, month = mar, year = {2025}, pages = {1--25}, project_risefarright = {true}, project_genderpolitics = {true}, project_socialmedia = {true} }

2024

Parties’ Issue Adaptation Between Elections

Cornelius Erfort, Heike Klüver, and Lukas Stoetzer

Jul 2024

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Are parties responsive to short-term changes in election polls? While party responsiveness to election results has received much attention, we know little about the dynamics of issue attention between elections. In this study, we address this question based on the novel comprehensive PARTYPRESS Database. We rely on supervised machine learning methods to build a dynamic measure of parties’ issue attention on the basis of more than 250,000 press releases from 68 parties across nine countries from 2010 until 2020. We find little support that losing in the polls leads parties to change their issue attention. When political parties lose support in the polls, they do not clearly prioritise their owned issue, they do not pay more attention to popular issues, and they do not adapt the issue focus of successful competitors. These findings have important implications for our understanding of party responsiveness and the dynamics of electoral competition.
@misc{erfort_parties_2024, title = {Parties’ {Issue} {Adaptation} {Between} {Elections}}, copyright = {https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode}, url = {https://osf.io/6n3z4}, doi = {10.31219/osf.io/6n3z4}, urldate = {2025-05-09}, publisher = {Open Science Framework}, author = {Erfort, Cornelius and Klüver, Heike and Stoetzer, Lukas}, month = jul, year = {2024}, project_risefarright = {true}, project_partycompetition = {true} }
Adopting Restriction: How Coalition Governments Respond to Radical Right Parties

Fabio Ellger and Heike Klüver

West European Politics, May 2024

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Radical right parties (RRPs) have gained representation in parliaments across Europe, but little is known about their impact on government policy. Even though RRPs tend to end up in opposition, they have considerable influence on policy making within coalition governments. One expectation is that coalition governments are tough on immigration to optimise voter support when being exposed to right-wing parties in parliament. Coalition negotiations temporarily reduce accountability and allow cabinets to adjust policy positions without bearing the costs associated with opportunistic behaviour. This argument is tested using novel data on pre-electoral policy positions and post-electoral immigration policies for coalition cabinets in 24 European democracies from 1980 to 2015. The findings reveal that governments shift to more restrictive immigration policies in face of RRPs. This article expands on prior research on the influence of the radical right by demonstrating its direct influence on coalition governments’ joint immigration policy plans.
@article{ellger_adopting_2024, title = {Adopting Restriction: How Coalition Governments Respond to Radical Right Parties}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01402382.2024.2341352}, doi = {10.1080/01402382.2024.2341352}, language = {en}, journal = {West European Politics}, author = {Ellger, Fabio and Klüver, Heike}, month = may, year = {2024}, pages = {1--33}, data = {https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/SW0WEG}, dataset = {coalitionagree}, project_coalitiongovernments = {true}, project_risefarright = {true} }

2023

The PARTYPRESS Database: A New Comparative Database of Parties’ Press Releases

Cornelius Erfort, Lukas F Stoetzer, and Heike Klüver

Research & Politics, Jul 2023

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We present the PARTYPRESS Database, which compiles more than 250,000 published press releases from 68 parties in 9 European countries. The database covers the press releases of the most relevant political parties in these countries from 2010 onward. It provides a supervised machine learning classification of press releases into 21 unique issue categories according to a general codebook. The PARTYPRESS Database can be used to study parties’ issue agendas comparatively and over time. We extend a recent analysis in Gessler and Hunger (2022) to illustrate the usefulness of the database in studying dynamic party competition, communication, and behavior.
@article{erfort_partypress_2023, title = {The {PARTYPRESS} {Database}: {A} {New} {Comparative} {Database} of {Parties}’ {Press} {Releases}}, volume = {10}, issn = {2053-1680, 2053-1680}, shorttitle = {The {PARTYPRESS} {Database}}, url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20531680231183512}, doi = {10.1177/20531680231183512}, language = {en}, number = {3}, urldate = {2025-05-09}, journal = {Research \& Politics}, author = {Erfort, Cornelius and Stoetzer, Lukas F and Klüver, Heike}, month = jul, year = {2023}, data = {https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/OINX7Q}, dataset = {partypress}, project_risefarright = {true} }
How Does Income Inequality Affect the Support for Populist Parties?

Lukas F. Stoetzer, Johannes Giesecke, and Heike Klüver

Journal of European Public Policy, Jan 2023

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Recent studies provide evidence that income inequality is a relevant driver for the electoral success of populist parties all over Europe. In this article, we aim to understand how exactly increasing income inequality can lead to support for populist parties. More specifically, we discuss four different attitudinal mechanisms from previous research: economic insecurities, trust in political elites, social integration, and national identity. We rely on eight waves of the European Social Survey and find that economic insecurities, trust in political elites, and national identity are linked to rising income inequality and populist support as expected. However, a causal mediation analysis shows that these mechanisms are not sufficient to fully understand the impact of income inequality on support for populists. This finding raises questions regarding the empirical support of existing theories to explain how macroeconomic changes in inequality became a pre-condition for the rise of populist parties.
@article{stoetzer_how_2023, title = {How {Does} {Income} {Inequality} {Affect} the {Support} for {Populist} {Parties}?}, volume = {30}, issn = {1350-1763, 1466-4429}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13501763.2021.1981981}, doi = {10.1080/13501763.2021.1981981}, language = {en}, number = {1}, urldate = {2025-05-15}, journal = {Journal of European Public Policy}, author = {Stoetzer, Lukas F. and Giesecke, Johannes and Klüver, Heike}, month = jan, year = {2023}, pages = {1--20}, project_risefarright = {true} }

2022

Perceived Inequality and Populism

Lukas Stoetzer, Johannes Giesecke, and Heike Klüver

Dec 2022

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Rising inequalities have been described as a fertile ground for populist parties allover the globe. In this article, we argue that the perception of inequality alone canstrengthen populist attitudes and increase support for populist parties. Using datafrom the International Social Survey Programme, we find that those who perceivegreater inequality in society are more likely to support populist parties. To explorethe causal relationship, the study also conducts a survey experiment in Denmark,Germany, and Italy, randomly exposing participants to factual information aboutthe wealth distribution. The results show that the perception of inequality canincrease populist attitudes, but does not immediate affect the likelihood of votingfor populist parties in this context. The findings speak to current debates on howinequality and their perception became a pre-condition for the rise of populistparties all over Europe.
@misc{stoetzer_perceived_2022, title = {Perceived {Inequality} and {Populism}}, copyright = {https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode}, url = {https://osf.io/zqa5x}, doi = {10.31219/osf.io/zqa5x}, urldate = {2025-06-06}, publisher = {Open Science Framework}, author = {Stoetzer, Lukas and Giesecke, Johannes and Klüver, Heike}, month = dec, year = {2022}, project_risefarright = {true} }

2019

Party Convergence and Vote Switching: Explaining Mainstream Party Decline Across Europe

Jae‐Jae Spoon and Heike Klüver

European Journal of Political Research, Nov 2019

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How can one explain the significant vote losses of mainstream parties across Europe in recent years? In this article, it is argued that mainstream party convergence is an important determinant of the recent political and electoral volatility in European party systems. More specifically, it is hypothesised that as mainstream parties converge on the left‐right scale, voters will switch from supporting a mainstream party to a non‐mainstream party in the next election as they look for an alternative that better represents their ideological views. To test these theoretical expectations, data is combined from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and the Manifestos Project for nearly 15,000 vote choices of individual voters in 30 elections in 16 West and East European countries from 2001 until 2013. The findings have important implications for understanding the recent rise of non‐mainstream parties, the changing nature of party systems and the increasing complexity of cabinet formation across Europe.
@article{spoon_party_2019, title = {Party {Convergence} and {Vote} {Switching}: {Explaining} {Mainstream} {Party} {Decline} {Across} {Europe}}, volume = {58}, issn = {0304-4130, 1475-6765}, shorttitle = {Party {Convergence} and {Vote} {Switching}}, url = {https://ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1475-6765.12331}, doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12331}, language = {en}, number = {4}, urldate = {2025-05-15}, journal = {European Journal of Political Research}, author = {Spoon, Jae‐Jae and Klüver, Heike}, month = nov, year = {2019}, pages = {1021--1042}, project_risefarright = {true}, project_partycompetition = {true} }